Pitching Comparison NYM vs Philly

The sky is falling on the Mets according to all reports because they have not signed a stud starting pitcher. The conventional wisdom says that without another starter the Mets have no chance versus the Phillies. The upgrade to the bullpen is downplayed even though that was the source of the Mets greatest weakness. The Mets had 29 Blown Saves and the Phillies had 15. The difference is 14 games for the mathematically challenged to figure out. 14 games. If the Mets only had 25 Blown Saves, they still would have been among the league leaders but they would have won the Eastern Division by one game. It they had 27 blown saves, the Mets would have won the wild card. That would seem to point to the bullpen being the major problem. Adding K-Rod and Putz would seem to reduce the Mets blown saves by at least 2, maybe 4 and quite possibly even more. Check out these stats of Mets - Phillies starters and relievers to see the difference:

GP GS W L IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA

Starting Pitching

Mets Totals 162 162 61 45 971.0 928 429 105 388 771 7.15 100.7 1.36 3.98

Phi Totals 162 162 59 47 966.2 988 454 123 322 670 6.24 96.0 1.36 4.23

GP W L Sv Hld BS IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA

Relief Pitching

Mets Totals 157 28 28 43 99 29 493.1 487 234 58 202 410 7.48 1.40 4.27

Phi Totals 158 33 23 47 80 15 483.0 456 173 37 211 411 7.66 1.38 3.22

The starting stats are remarkably similar but the relief stats tell the difference. Besides blown saves, the Mets relievers had an ERA of over 1 run per game higher. A major contributor was the extra 21 HRs allowed by Mets relievers despite playing in Shea vs the bandbox. The conclusion would seem to be; fix the bullpen, which the Mets have done. A further review of the top 4 starters on each team as currently set reveals another set of similar stats even without Derek Lowe or Ollie Perez.

Name Team G GS W L CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA

Johan Santana NYM 34 34 16 7 3 2 234.1 206 74 66 23 63 206 2.53 1.15 .232

Cole Hamels PHI 33 33 14 10 2 2 227.1 193 89 78 28 53 196 3.09 1.08 .227

Jamie Moyer PHI 33 33 16 7 0 0 196.1 199 85 81 20 62 123 3.71 1.33 .262

Mike Pelfrey NYM 32 32 13 11 2 0 200.2 209 86 83 12 64 110 3.72 1.36 .276

John Maine NYM 25 25 10 8 0 0 140.0 122 70 65 16 67 122 4.18 1.35 .234

Brett Myers PHI 30 30 10 13 2 1 190.0 197 103 96 29 65 163 4.55 1.38 .267

Joe Blanton PHI 33 33 9 12 0 0 197.2 211 110 103 22 66 111 4.69 1.40 .271

Tim Redding NYM 33 33 10 11 1 0 182.0 195 110 100 27 65 120 4.95 1.43 .275

Check out each starter compared to their counterpart and there is not much difference head to head. If the Mets did not add another starter and plugged in Garcia or Niese to the # 5 versus Adam Eaton or Kyle Kendrick the staffs would match up very evenly.

Conclusion: A Perez signing would have to give the Mets an edge in starting pitching. As would a Sheets signing or even Wolf, Garland, or Looper. Any of these pitchers would provide the Mets with a statistical edge going into the season at starting pitching. Do the Mets need to spend another $10 M on Ollie when a lower cost alternative might be as effective? How about one of these $5 - 7 million guys and save some money for a another purchase? I have one in mind, that coupled with some other roster adjustments might just give the Mets a very attractive advantage over the Phillies. Stay tuned for the Manny solution.