Manny Dollars and Cents

Manny is going to cost about $23M per season. Assuming the Mets get Perez for about $10M that would put the budget at somewhere in the $130-135M range. The target seems to be around $140-145M. Instead of looking at this year, lets jump ahead a year to 2010. The Mets will have Wagner $10.5, Delgado $12M, and Schneider $4.9M as the big tickets coming off the books, a total of $27.4M. Of course there are some contracts that will increase like Wright's and K-rod so add in about $10 cost of living increases. There is also that hole at catcher that will need to be filled, maybe pencil in another $5mil there. That leaves around $10-12M for shopping or to help pay Manny's salary. Murphy could go to first and at some point F-Mart has to become a regular OF so we should be able to fill holes. Not being a math wiz, I still do not see anyway to get Manny without the budget increasing into the $150-160M range. The question is what will Manny provide to the bottom line in terms of increased revenue. If his presence will add up to another $5-10M then he makes financial cents. I'm sure the Wilpons are thinking about that question, even without their baseball people bringing a Manny proposal to them.

Solid but not Wow

Are we excited that the entire Ollie saga may be coming to a close? Its kind of like if you go out and buy your own birthday present but wait until the actual day to open it. The present is still kind of cool, but not the big surprise that gets you all jazzed up for the moment. You still have the same gift, it does the same stuff, and in the long run your satisfaction level is equal to how the present performs. An Ollie signing is kind of like that, good quality but not the Wow factor.
I have read some old posts, literally just days ago and realized that Omar is much more patient than I am. In the course of a few days, I have gone from excited about Lowe, glad the Mets passed, sold on Ollie, infatuated with Sheets, thought about wolf or Garland and now back to Perez. Passing on Lowe at $15M per season was a sound, financial move. Assuming the Mets land Perez in the $10M range, the Mets will have done a 2 for 1 with Ollie and Garcia. If that pans out, then good work by Omar for staying within his budget and getting two potentially very strong arms for the rotation. A group that goes Santana, Perez, Pelfrey, Maine, Garcia or Redding, with Niese and Parnell as fall back options is much better than last year's group based on better depth. The Ben Sheets idea is still very intriguing but with no medical knowledge it is very understandable why the Mets (and others) are hesitant to sign him. So we hopefully have Ollie in hand by the end of the weekend. And then we can dream about that Wow present, spelled Manny.

Trade Church?

The Mets have signed a bunch of similar lefthanded OF who are collectively labeled good defense, ok offense. No one you would want to start as your primary banger in the outfield but serviceable types of players. Now why would the Mets sign all of these leftys, knowing that a right handed hammer is what is needed? What if these moves are a precursor to a more major series of moves. What if the Mets were looking to trade Ryan Church and his $2.8 M salary to clear a little financial wiggle room. What if Daniel Murphy,Cory Sullivan or Jeremey Reed were actually going to get the chance to play on a regular basis in the Mets OF? What would the Mets do for the hammer right handed bat? Could the Mets then add a right handed hitter by the name of Manny to be the hammer? Could we live with Beltran, Manny, and Reed? Would that mean that Omar would downgrade from Ollie to fill out the rotation? How about adding Braden Looper who has a remarkably similar ERA to Ollie at a fraction of the cost? How about dumping Brian Schneider as part of this plan to save an additional $4.9M? Maybe add Pudge at a discounted rate to platoon with Castro? Could we live with this lineup:
Reyes
Beltran
Manny
Wright
Delgado
Pudge
Murphy
Castillo
The budget would be at about $145 M of someone else's dollars. No Ollie or Lowe, but a solid rotation with a very good bullpen. Are the Mets just hiding in the weeds to see if they can steal Manny the way they stole Santana? Something to think about.

Pitching Comparison NYM vs Philly

The sky is falling on the Mets according to all reports because they have not signed a stud starting pitcher. The conventional wisdom says that without another starter the Mets have no chance versus the Phillies. The upgrade to the bullpen is downplayed even though that was the source of the Mets greatest weakness. The Mets had 29 Blown Saves and the Phillies had 15. The difference is 14 games for the mathematically challenged to figure out. 14 games. If the Mets only had 25 Blown Saves, they still would have been among the league leaders but they would have won the Eastern Division by one game. It they had 27 blown saves, the Mets would have won the wild card. That would seem to point to the bullpen being the major problem. Adding K-Rod and Putz would seem to reduce the Mets blown saves by at least 2, maybe 4 and quite possibly even more. Check out these stats of Mets - Phillies starters and relievers to see the difference:

GP GS W L IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA

Starting Pitching

Mets Totals 162 162 61 45 971.0 928 429 105 388 771 7.15 100.7 1.36 3.98

Phi Totals 162 162 59 47 966.2 988 454 123 322 670 6.24 96.0 1.36 4.23

GP W L Sv Hld BS IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA

Relief Pitching

Mets Totals 157 28 28 43 99 29 493.1 487 234 58 202 410 7.48 1.40 4.27

Phi Totals 158 33 23 47 80 15 483.0 456 173 37 211 411 7.66 1.38 3.22

The starting stats are remarkably similar but the relief stats tell the difference. Besides blown saves, the Mets relievers had an ERA of over 1 run per game higher. A major contributor was the extra 21 HRs allowed by Mets relievers despite playing in Shea vs the bandbox. The conclusion would seem to be; fix the bullpen, which the Mets have done. A further review of the top 4 starters on each team as currently set reveals another set of similar stats even without Derek Lowe or Ollie Perez.

Name Team G GS W L CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA

Johan Santana NYM 34 34 16 7 3 2 234.1 206 74 66 23 63 206 2.53 1.15 .232

Cole Hamels PHI 33 33 14 10 2 2 227.1 193 89 78 28 53 196 3.09 1.08 .227

Jamie Moyer PHI 33 33 16 7 0 0 196.1 199 85 81 20 62 123 3.71 1.33 .262

Mike Pelfrey NYM 32 32 13 11 2 0 200.2 209 86 83 12 64 110 3.72 1.36 .276

John Maine NYM 25 25 10 8 0 0 140.0 122 70 65 16 67 122 4.18 1.35 .234

Brett Myers PHI 30 30 10 13 2 1 190.0 197 103 96 29 65 163 4.55 1.38 .267

Joe Blanton PHI 33 33 9 12 0 0 197.2 211 110 103 22 66 111 4.69 1.40 .271

Tim Redding NYM 33 33 10 11 1 0 182.0 195 110 100 27 65 120 4.95 1.43 .275

Check out each starter compared to their counterpart and there is not much difference head to head. If the Mets did not add another starter and plugged in Garcia or Niese to the # 5 versus Adam Eaton or Kyle Kendrick the staffs would match up very evenly.

Conclusion: A Perez signing would have to give the Mets an edge in starting pitching. As would a Sheets signing or even Wolf, Garland, or Looper. Any of these pitchers would provide the Mets with a statistical edge going into the season at starting pitching. Do the Mets need to spend another $10 M on Ollie when a lower cost alternative might be as effective? How about one of these $5 - 7 million guys and save some money for a another purchase? I have one in mind, that coupled with some other roster adjustments might just give the Mets a very attractive advantage over the Phillies. Stay tuned for the Manny solution.

Sheets Minus Perez = quality plus picks

I was just listening to MetsBlog's email segment and Matthew Cerrone was talking about the possibility of both Sheets and Perez signing with the Mets. His rationale for that happening would be a Sheets signing first might depress the market for Perez so that the Mets could then add Ollie. I find it hard to believe the Mets could get both or even want both. I'm not sure the Mets want Perez. Their strategy all winter as been to throw out relatively low numbers at Lowe and Perez to see what happens. Lowe at $15 M is overpriced for the long haul. I think the Braves will be trying to deal him by the trade deadline of 2010. As for Ollie, those two draft picks that would be available as a Type A signing are very attractive. K-Rod cost the Mets their own #1, signing Sheets would cost the team its #2. However, a Perez signing elsewhere would gain the Mets two #1 picks back. I'm guessing if Omar could trade his 1st and 2nd picks for someone else's #1 plus a supplemental #1 and get K-rod and Sheets - that is a good deal. Plus it still leaves room to sign another Type A and absorb the loss of the 3rd round pick. Bottom line: Sheets at $8-9 M plus two #1 picks for an Ollie signing somewhere else is a Win/Win scenario.

Life Without Ollie

Its time to up the ante for Mr. Boras. The entire Derek Lowe scenario showed that eventually a Boras client will get closer to his number than the team's. I don't think the Mets were getting Lowe at $12 or 13 M per year even if that was the initial offer. Boras was looking to be in the $15 M annual range and he accomplished that goal. Were the Mets ever prepared to go that high, probably not and rightfully so. Lowe is not a No. 1 and the back end of that deal could hang like an albatross around the Braves neck. Of course that is ancient history for Mets fans, or it should be. The team still has at least one hole in the rotation and could use two more arms.
Ollie would fill one but is he the answer and are the Mets going to be able to get him at a number they feel comfortable with? I am guessing it takes 4 years at $12 with a 5th year option to get it done long term. Otherwise, Boras may very well direct Perez to take a one year offer on the West Coast and go back into the pool next year. If that happens what should the Mets do?
Option 1: sign Ben Sheets and take a medical chance. Without being able to look at or understand his records I can't make an educated guess. However, since this is just a blog I say give it a try if there is a reasonable chance of getting 20-25 starts out of him.
Option 2: sign Randy Wolf but again take a medical chance. He never has done that much for me except he is a lefty. If the Mets could get Wolf and Sheets and be guaranteed 40 starts that would be an option to consider.
Option 3: sign Andy Pettite and make the Yankees extremely unhappy. So unhappy, that they would probably sign Perez and have him blossom in pinstripes. Seems unlikely that Pettite would sign with the Mets.
Option 4: Jon Garland get a pitcher who pitches to contact. Interesting way to describe a pitcher but still seems to be overpriced.
Option 5: Freddy Garcia and another medical case. He has to be worth 10-15 starts, maybe more. What would you expect for the contract he is probably going to sign for.
Option 6: Trade for Jake Peavy, of course it will cost F-Mart plus and that is not going to happen.
So what should Omar do? Budget $12 M for the balance of the rotation, sign Sheets and Garcia on one year incentive deals. Probably less than $10 M between the two. Take the balance and follow the advice of Mets Fever, sign Orlando Hudson to a one year deal with options. He gives the Mets a #2 hitter and another switch hitter. Rotation would be Santana, Sheets, Pelfrey, Maine, Garcia, Redding, Niese. Plenty of arms to get 162 starts out of and potentially a dominating staff. The Mets would stay within budget and be the infamous "team to beat".

The Red Sox Do It

How come when the Red Sox pick up more guys with medical histories than a VA hospital that they are viewed as geniues. "That Theo really picked up a gem with the Penny signing. How did the Red Sox steal Smoltz away from the Braves?" Enough with Red Sox Nation being smarter than everyone else. The Mets need to go out and sign Ben Sheets and Freddy Garcia. Add Randy Wolf too and I bet they get at least 50 starts out of the 3 of them. 50 starts for probably pretty close to the money that the Braves will pay Lowe. That leaves 112 starts for Santana, Pelfry, Maine, Redding and Niese. I can live with that as long as Niese or Redding are not getting the bulk of them. Go do it Omar, be the genius. Forget about Moises Alou, Pedro and Luis Castillo. Bad choices but good gambles except for Castillo. The time has come to make the moves, be bold, be like the Red Sox.

Omar Has a Plan (I think)

Obviously, Omar did not have his heart set on Derek Lowe. Every other major free agent has been given the full blown tour of NYC and the surrounding area. We don't even hear about any of the Mets players calling Lowe with the sales pitch to come to CitiField. Why? Lowe had a 4.42 ERA on the road last year so lets see how he fares when he is playing the Phillies, Mets, and Marlins regularly rather than the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Lowe is a very good pitcher and would have looked good as a Met in 2009, but how about the other 3 years. I am going to trust that Omar had a reason for not pushing hard for him. Maybe it was a little gamesmanship to have the Braves or Phillies jump in with a big, fat contract.
Let's look at what the Braves have done because it sounds like panic moves that could easily saddle them with financial inflexibility for years to come. First, they sign Javier Vasquez, a great talent (allegedly) who has not been great in a few years. Next, they sign an unknown, 33 year old Japanese pitcher right out from under the nose of the Orioles. The Freakin Orioles were the only other team in on this guy. How did he fly under the radar? No posting fee, no Red Sox interest, but he is now going to be a star in Atlanta. Finally, they sign Derek Lowe for $60M over 4 years. They will be paying him $15M when he is 40. Does that seem financially sound? Anytime the Yankees and Red Sox don't seem interested makes me wonder about the player.
OK, now what. Oliver is on deck and I am holding out hope that Ben Sheets gets a little run as a potential Met. Look at the Phillies staff. Cole Hamels, arrogant stud. But then you get Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, and Kyle Kendrick. After Hamels, there are not any $60M guys on that staff. Just a lights out pen that forces teams to squeeze a little tighter early in the game knowing they do not want to have to face Madson, Lidge and company. Let's give Omar a little more time with the financial flexibility he has retained before going crazy with the sky is falling sentiment.

Go Get Sheets

Why is Ben Sheets never in the conversation as a possible Mets starter? Health, that's why. He could be the best pitcher available based on "stuff" but he has lingering health issues. He was hurt last year, but he still threw 198 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K's and only 47 walks. He had 5 complete games which would be a huge bonus to the revamped Mets bullpen. Of course his medical records are the key to determining if Sheets is going to come back strong. If they were positive why not try to sign him to a 2 year incentive laden deal. Maybe $6 M guaranteed per year with another $6M of incentives based on innings pitched. Throw in a vesting option for years 3-4 and the Mets could have a steal. Sheets is only 30 and can be dominating.

"Ben Sheets, SP: Sure, he hasn’t made his full complement of starts since 2004. But if healthy, he’s better than Burnett and nearly Sabathia’s equivalent.
Jeff Passan, yahoosports.com

If the Mets could sign Sheets to an incentive based contract, add Pedro or Freddy Garcia to go with Tim Redding they would have the makings of a deep, potentially dominating staff plus still have some payroll flexibility.

Why not Nomar?

How crazy would it be to add Nomar Garciappara as the utility player? The Red Sox are signing damaged goods left and right to incentive rich contracts, why not the Mets. Garciappara had an injury filled year last year but still showed some pop with 8 HR's in 168 AB. He could spell Wright and Reyes, split some time with Delgado against lefties and even be in the LF mix. The guy is a gamer, with a great attitude and is only 2 seasons removed from a plus 400 AB, .300 plus year. He is the type of older player with a diverse skill set that Omar loves. Plus he bats righty which is a definite area of need. On top of that, he could bring his former soccer starring wife to the New York and add a little glamour. Maybe no Anna Benson but definitely a cool couple to read about in Page Six. Nomar could be a very good fit for the 2009 Mets.

Any Other Boras Clients of Interest

Scott Boras met with the Mets upper management today, including Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya to have lunch and tour Citi Field. Hopefully, there were several baseball players on the menu that were of interest to the Mets. Of course the conversation had to be centered around Derek Lowe and to a lesser extent, Oliver Perez. I tend to agree with Joel Sherman that some horse trading is going on and a deal in the $39-42 mil with a 4th year option is on the horizon. Boras squeezes every dollar he can but he is also a realist who will suddenly make a deal. If we make a huge leap and assume that Lowe or Perez is going to finally agree on a deal with the Mets, who else would be on the menu.

A list of Boras clients reveals some of the usual supsects but also some intriguing names as well. Manny is at the top of many Mets fans wish list, so his name had to be discussed. There is a small chance that if the Mets wait long enough, he might fall to them at a price that the Wilpons will accept. Alex Cora seems to be on the Mets wish list as a utility player and he could surface as an addition to the bench. How about Garret Anderson? He bats lefty, but puts up good numbers and might make a nice caretaker in left to help complete the outfield equation. Then we have the catchers most prominently thrown around in Mets rumors, Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. I find it hard to believe that the Mets would sign Varitek as a Type A free agent. How about an NBA style sign and trade with the Red Sox? They sign him and send him to the Mets for Schneider. Pudge is a type B, but of course that would also mean shipping Schneinder out to parts unknown. Brad Wilkerson is one of those old Minaya hands with the Expos that he loves to claim off the scrap heap and revitalize.

Finally, look who is a Boras client, Xavier Nady. He is back in the news as a potential trade target and the Mets are always linked with him. Boras is an accomplished trade facilitator. He just attended a news conference at Yankee Stadium where his bank breaking client made the X man available. Why not try to bridge that difficult trade distance from Citi to Yankee Stadium with Nady? He only has one year left, can play either corner outfield plus 1B, hits with pop, and is a huge fan favorite. A Mets - Yankees trade would have to be intriguing for Mr. Boras to try to pull off. I would be very satisfied if this lunch today served Lowe as the entry and Nady as the dessert.

Should the Mets up the Ante on Lowe?

It is always fascinating to follow a Scott Boras negotiation. The first step is throwing out a number that seems ridiculous and allows the media to start to analyze the potential cost/benefit of the player. Next Boras will identify one team to start the dance with. The team typically makes a low offer and waits. Then comes the denial of the initial offer followed by the naming of the other teams that are interested. The other teams are never a random assortment but usually contain one main rival, at least one wild card team trying to make a splash and of course a mystery team. This gets the dance in full motion. Now it is up to the lead team to decide what to do; up their offer, hold pat, or throw out the name of another player they have interest in to try and reverse the bluff. Finally, the dance picks up speed and someone blinks. In the case of Mark Teixeira, the Yankees were the mystery team and Red Sox did not go all in. The Nationals and Orioles were the wild card teams used to drive the price up. Of course it is much easier for the Yankees to be the mystery team with their financial coffers because they always have the ability to blow away the competition.

What does this have to do with Derek Lowe? The Mets have entered the Boras dance floor and have yet to blink. The Phillies and Braves have been mentioned as potential suitors that may have surpassed the Mets bid of $12M for 3 years. Of course there is some mystery team that may turn out to be the Mets as a Boras negotiating ploy. Omar has stood pat on the surface. We fans have no idea what is going on behind the scenes but an educated guess seems to be that $14 M over 3 with some kind of option might get it done. The question is how bad does Omar want Lowe? There seemed to be a split verdict over pursuing Lowe or Ollie. Maybe the Mets have decided to try to get Lowe at bargain and if that does not work then move on Perez.

I have no idea what the Wilpons financial situation is but they seem pretty intent on staying around the $135-140 million level. Which by the way puts the Mets in pretty elite spending company. Personally, I am split on the Lowe - Perez quandry. If you could guarantee one of the two at a reasonable rate with some money left to do some more shopping then I would take either one. However, I think this will start to come to a conclusion fairly quickly, maybe in the next couple of days. Boras seems to wrap negotiations up fast after he has exhausted the market options for a player and move on to the next dance. I think next Sunday we will be talking about another roster spot.